Global 2024/25 Cotton Production Forecast Higher.

Global cotton production in 2024/25 is projected at 117.6 million bales, about 3.5 percent (4.1 million bales) above the previous year and 2 percent above the 5-year average (figure 6). For 2024/25, cotton production prospects for most of the major-producing countries are projected to increase. Year-over-year gains in the United States and Brazil were largely responsible for the global increase, offset slightly by declines in India and Pakistan. World 2024/25 cotton harvested area is forecast at 31.5 million hectares (77.8 million acres), less than 1 percent above the previous year. The 2024/25 global cotton yield is forecast at 813 kilograms (kg) per hectare (725 pounds per acre), 3 percent above the 3-year average and a record high. World cotton production is concentrated among a few countries, with the top four countries accounting for 71 percent of total expected production in 2024/25, the same as the previous season. China and India are expected to remain the leading cotton producers in 2024/25, accounting for 23 percent and 21 percent, respectively, of the global total. China is projected to produce 27.5 million bales of cotton, a slight (0.5 percent) increase from 2023/24. China’s harvested area is expected to be unchanged in 2024/25 at 2.85 million hectares. With no change to harvested area, an increase in yield is responsible for the year-over-year production gain. China’s yield is projected at 2,101 kg per hectare, the second highest on record. Production in India is forecast at 24.5 million bales, 6.5 percent (1.7 million bales) below 2023/24, with lower area and yield forecast compared with last year. India’s yield is projected to be 445 kilograms per hectare while the cotton area is expected to decline 5.5 percent (700,000 hectares) to 12.0 million hectares.

 In addition to the cotton production rebound projected for the United States in 2024/25, Brazil’s production is estimated to increase approximately 14.5 percent over the previous year, to a record 16.7 million bales. The larger 2024/25 crop projection (+2.1 million bales) in Brazil is the result of increased area that more than offsets a small decline in yield. Brazil’s harvested area is estimated at 1.9 million hectares (up 17 percent year-over-year), while the yield is projected at 1,874 kg per hectare, down 2 percent from last year’s record of 1,911 kg per hectare. For Pakistan, 2024/25 cotton production is expected to decline 700,000 bales (10 percent) from 2023/24 to 6.0 million bales. Harvested area in Pakistan is expected to decline 12.5 percent (300,000 hectares) to 2.1 million hectares in 2024/25, with yield projected slightly higher and limiting the overall production decline this season. Yield is expected to increase 2 percent in 2024/25 to 622 kg per hectare. Australia’s cotton production is expected to be unchanged at 5.0 million bales in 2024/25 as higher area is offset by a lower national yield. Australia’s harvested area is expected to increase 8 percent (40,000 hectares) to 550,000 hectares in 2024/25 while the yield is forecast lower at 1,979 kg per hectare